I was just thinking - with a contrast to 2008 - the HUI was a lot higher then when the S&P crashed - and theres also more liquidity in the market - so if the miners do pullback...it may not be as severe as last time...
Also - you would think if gold has hit the 3,000 psychological point - and the fact its very easy for fund managers to see what happened the last time the S&P crashed - how the miners rebounded so strongly - could that mean if there is to be a small pull back - it could be a very swift one before a parabolic shift in the HUI?
The Gold - HUI ratio is about 3 times higher today than it was in 2008...again - how much more can mining stocks fall in the even of a pull back?
Lastly, I know you were saying a black swan event might trigger the S&P crash - an added element now that 2008 didnt have is the crypto factor - obviously bitcoin had that hack a couple of days ago and since then (even as I write this) is plummeting...
The reason I write most of the above is you have alot of people selling out of the miners in anticipation of a crash....however - I'm really not sure how bad that pull back is going to be and if anything the tide could turn very quickly for miners...
Should tariffs on Mexico make us think twice about CDE and others with Mexican silver mines, etc? I’m not sure what to think, in addition to impact of tariffs on broader US stock market.
Ps - Ive no intention of selling any of the miners - I agree with your stance about being an investor v a speculator!
Hi Don,
Great analysis (as usual)....
I was just thinking - with a contrast to 2008 - the HUI was a lot higher then when the S&P crashed - and theres also more liquidity in the market - so if the miners do pullback...it may not be as severe as last time...
Also - you would think if gold has hit the 3,000 psychological point - and the fact its very easy for fund managers to see what happened the last time the S&P crashed - how the miners rebounded so strongly - could that mean if there is to be a small pull back - it could be a very swift one before a parabolic shift in the HUI?
The Gold - HUI ratio is about 3 times higher today than it was in 2008...again - how much more can mining stocks fall in the even of a pull back?
Lastly, I know you were saying a black swan event might trigger the S&P crash - an added element now that 2008 didnt have is the crypto factor - obviously bitcoin had that hack a couple of days ago and since then (even as I write this) is plummeting...
The reason I write most of the above is you have alot of people selling out of the miners in anticipation of a crash....however - I'm really not sure how bad that pull back is going to be and if anything the tide could turn very quickly for miners...
Are all the stars aligning?
Thanks again for all your work!
Tiarnan
Don, do you think tariffs on Canada and Mexico might cause miners to sell off more?
Yes. Tariffs could be the trigger that pushes down the stock market. Trump seems determined to use them.
Should tariffs on Mexico make us think twice about CDE and others with Mexican silver mines, etc? I’m not sure what to think, in addition to impact of tariffs on broader US stock market.