Mid-Week Recap (8/12/2026)

Mid-Week Macro

Gold and silver have continued to trend after last week’s rally. Today, gold closed above $4400 and silver above $65. Most analysts are bullish and think the bottom is in and to expect gold/silver to trend higher. I think we still have to watch out for a correction in the S&P 500, which closed above 7700 today and remains near an ATH. This high level on the S&P makes it easier for gold and silver to trend. If the S&P does a sharp correction in the near term (my expectation), then so will gold and silver.

I remain bullish gold and silver for Q4, but bearish in the near term. I don’t think we will get to November without a correction on the S&P. However, this correction I am expecting could be mild and have very little impact on gold and silver.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a very important issue impacting the stock market and gold. It appears that Iran has stopped negotiating and is waiting for Trump to leave. There is a lot of uncertainty on how this war ends. Japan has also become an issue. Japan has a lot of uncertainty with its falling currency and the impacted yen carry trade. Plus, we are now in the negative seasonality window for the S&P 500.

One final comment on the economy and a possible impact to the S&P 500. The jobs numbers have been weak, with a negative NFP (non-farm payrolls) number for July. Any hiccup to the economy in the near term will impact the S&P 500.