Mid-Week Macro (8/20/2025)

Mid-Week Macro

The stock market has had some volatility this week, with the market leaders (MAG7 and Palantir) having some weakness. However, the S&P 500 closed today at 6395, which isn’t far from an ATH, so this possible correction is very early. Gold remains correlated with the stock market (the S&P 500 is high and so is gold) and has been trading in a tight range. Gold closed today at $3345. It has been around $3333 for about a month now, trading sideways. Silver has been trying to break out, but hasn’t been able to touch $40 yet. Today, it closed at $37.84, and has been around $37 for about a month.

I expect the S&P 500 to crash soon. What is soon? It could begin next week, next month, or next quarter. I said crash, which is 20% or more. I could be wrong and all we wil get is a 5% to 10% correction and then another wave higher. My guess is that the S&P is heading to sub 4000 soon, but gold and silver won’t crash with it. Gold is the leader and not the poser. Don’t expect gold to crash. I doubt it will drop 10% in the near term, and I doubt it will stay down for more than a month when it does correct. So, any correction in gold will be short-lived. Silver will follow gold.

We are now in weak seasonality until mid-October. This is not when we can expect strong gold/silver prices. This is when we can buy dips. For example, I posted a chart on X today showing why I expect to retest $34 silver, and if $34 doesn’t hold, we could retest $32. If we see those levels, we can expect volatility in the miners. But if we do see those levels, I’m not worried about an extended correction. I expect any correction in gold/silver to be short-lived (likely less than a month).