Mid-Week Macro (7/9/2025)
The story remains the US economy and US stock market. The S&P 500 is above 6200 and Wall St thinks it’s going higher. I have my doubts. We are now in July and the tariff pause is ending. Japan and Korea said they will not negotiate using a simplistic methodology. Trump said fine and sent them a letter saying they will have a 25% tariffs for all products (some products have higher tariffs) beginning August 1st. Trump also broke off negotiations with Canada. So far, the S&P 500 hasn’t cared. Let’s see how long that lasts.
Gold, silver, and the miners are happy with a high stock market. Gold is off its ATH, but bounces when it drops below $3300. Silver keeps trying to get above $37 and has remained above $35 for about 3 weeks. The HUI is over 400 and is waiting for silver to breakout above $40. I think this is bull trap for gold, silver, and the miners. I expect a correction on Wall Street soon, which will push gold down to around $3100, and silver and the miners will follow. This correction will be shallow and short-lived, and might not even happen.
Listen to the recent interview with Jeff Snider on Soar Financial. I think he nails it with regard to the weakness in the economy. I don’t think it the current slowdown is going to reverse. My guess is that a recession is coming and nothing can prevent it. Once the recession begins, it’s game over. The US won’t recover, and gold/silver will blast off as the bond market becomes fragile, leading to a reset/default.
Where is the link to Jeffs interview ?
cheers
Starting to backtrack on this correction , a little more focus on this would have been more beneficial than the miners perhaps as some of us aren’t even positioned and may not get that early entry point which to me is way more essential than finding the value plays as if silver plays out the way your hoping you can literally pick just about any miner and get a 3x