Mid-Week Macro (7/8/2026)

Mid-Week Macro

The S&P 500 is at 7504 and seems to have lost its upward momentum. Without a trending stock market, gold is currently trapped. It can’t make a run at $5,000 without upward momentum from the S&P 500. Plus, the war in Iran seems to be escalating, leading to fears of inflation and higher interest rates, both of which are bad for gold. Gold closed today at $4075, and silver followed the downward price action to $58. The miners are getting smashed with the HUI at 619, down 38% from January. Ouch.

The gold/silver/miner bull is bucking hard. Only true believers are left. We could go lower, but not much. The cycle bottom for the rest of the year is likely less than 10% from current gold/silver/miner levels. I expect gold to reach a new ATH in Q4 or Q1. The fundamentals for gold only seem to be improving. The kryptonite for gold is a strong US economy, and I don’t see that outcome for the rest of the year or 2027.

I’m excited about the trend for gold. Central banks are buyers. Asian countries are buyers. The global south are buyers. The middle corridor are buyers. The trend is our friend. This is not something that is turning around anytime soon. Expecting $6,000 gold in 2027 and $7,000 in 2028 seems like a conservative expectation. Wall Street doesn’t expect it, but that’s our opportunity.

Since the war in Iran began, I have said this is good news for gold because it creates more geopolitical uncertainty. Today, it doesn’t appear that way for gold, but wait a few months. Geopolitical and economic problems for the US are only getting worse. That leads to less confidence in USDs and USTs by foreigners. Countries are trying to find ways to move away from these assets. I expect to see a new global trading currency soon, and it will damage the dollar and boost gold.