Mid-Week Macro (7/22/2026)

Mid-Week Macro

The S&P 500 continues to hold 7500, ignoring the escalation in the Iran war and rising oil prices. I don’t think the S&P can get through negative seasonality, which ends mid-October, without some type of a correction. After this likely correction in the S&P, can the AI trade create another V-Shaped recovery and take us back to ATHs? That is the big question between now and November.

Gold and silver have had a bit of a bounce this week, with gold back above $4100 and silver at $60. I think it is a dead-cat bounce, and we will go back down once the S&P takes its plunge. I likely won’t buy more gold/silver miners until we get the next correction. We can expect gold to retest the recent low around $3900. That probably won’t hold, and we will get a new low around $3750. I expect $3750 to hold, but we could see $3500. Either way, one of these two is likely to be the final cycle low for 2026.

Silver will follow gold down. We can expect sub-$55, and potentially sub-$50. But these levels will be short-lived, and the bounce out of these lows will be dramatic. We probably will see a $5 or $10 up day shortly after the low is put in, as investors buy the dip aggressively.

I remain bullish for Q4. I expect gold and silver to have a strong Q4, with gold making a run at $5500. The only thing that can derail a strong Q4 for gold/silver is the AI trade. If AI stocks can keep the S&P from crashing, then gold and silver will struggle. AI has become the stock market, and the stock market is the economy. It’s really that simple. AI will either be the savior or the downfall of the economy. AI will either prevent a recession, or it won’t. Place your bets.