Mid-Week Macro (6/3/2026)

Mid-Week Macro

Not much has changed this week, although gold/silver/miners are all down. Gold is at $4459, down 20% from its ATH. Silver is at $73, down 39%. The HUI is at 725, down 25%. I doubt those are cycle lows for the year. At some point, the S&P 500 will likely crash this year and pull down gold/silver/miners. My cycle low targets are around $4200, $60, and 600. I doubt gold can get pushed below $4000 for very long, or silver below $60 for very long.

Ultimately, we are waiting for two things: 1) The S&P 500 to stop going up, and 2) Gold/silver/miners to put in their next cycle lows. Both won’t happen at the same time, but both events are coming. When? Probably not until Aug/Sep.

Sometime this year, I expect the recession to arrive, whereby gold becomes the winner (and S&P 500 the loser) and the go-to asset. Today, Wall Street is ignoring gold and focusing on AI. That will change at some point.

Trump said today that they are close to signing an MOU with Iran to open the Strait. I think that is unlikely, but I also think it is unlikely that the war will escalate. One way or another, the war is winding down. At least that’s my take. That means we likely won’t get a crash on Wall Street in June or July, which tend to be placid months. It also means that gold and silver will probably be trapped below breakout levels ($5000/$90) because they won’t have a driver (I’ll explain more on Friday).