Mid-Week Macro (6/24/2026)
Mid-Week Macro
Silver crashed 8% today to $57 and is down 53% from its ATH. Gold is at $4,000 and down 28%. The HUI is down 36% from its ATH. Agnico Eagle is down 40% from its January ATH.
This is a brutal correction, but those are normal in gold/silver bull markets. In 1975-76, there was a 45% silver correction. In 2004, there was a 40% silver correction. In 2008, silver had a 60% correction.
We could see another 60% correction, which would take silver to $48. I think $48 to $55 is a range to expect. If it doesn’t happen in the near term, it could happen in Q3 or Q4. For gold, we should expect a range of $3500 to $3800.
Some of you perhaps wish you had taken some profits and were sitting on cash right now to buy this dip. The problem with that approach is that once you start skimming profits, you will be a trader. Then you will enter the slippery slope of thinking you can be a good trader. Trading is difficult. Let the pros do it. Instead, stay on the train and ride it to the top. To do this, you have to believe in one thing: the US economy is a debt bubble ready to pop, and will pop. That belief will make it easier to ride these dips. Plus, if you have any dry powder, these dips are extraordinary opportunities to buy gold/silver miners on sale.
Gold (silver follows gold) has several factors that have contributed to pushing it down 28%. These factors have had a multiplier effect. First, we had a huge run from August to February and needed a correction. Second, the war in Iran created a selling and inflationary impact. Third, AI stocks pushed up the stock market and lowered the chance of a recession (decreasing uncertainty). Fourth, Kevin Warsh sounded like a hawk in his first press conference, increasing the chance of lower real rates.
One of these factors would not have been able to push gold down 28%, but combined, it occurred. Is the gold/silver bull market over? Ask yourself this: Is AI going to be the savior of the US economy and the US debt bubble? Did the business cycle go away? Is the US economy now recession-proof? My take is that the problems with the US economy have put a floor under gold, and the trend for gold prices remains up. I’m buying this dip and will buy the next one when it comes. I expect at least one more. I don’t think these are the 2026 lows for gold and silver.
Mike,
I wondered too about that statement. I would have to believe it was amiss. But what is important to keep in mind is that the Fed inevitably raises rates until they break something. It is not too difficult to realize that the U.S. government and the Fed are running out of real options on the current track. At some point, the Triffin dilemma adds more and more instability. Unfortunately, time is not on the side of the reserve currency, especially with two political parties that are both scared stiff of taking away the public punch bowl; and they continue to kick the can down the road while pointing the finger at everyone but themselves, while they very often get the first drink. It is not unusual for traders in general to get ahead of themselves and gold traders are no exception. The weak hands will be wrung out as is necessary. This can take longer than many think, but some real fear, hate and loathing is needed before the precious metals and miners can move higher. The long view has not changed and the current administration has poured more fuel on the fire. I concur with the essence of what Don has stated many times -- that the keys to this precious metals vault are patience and perseverance.
Hi Don,
Regarding Agnico Eagle and it's 40% fall, do you think this is an attractive buy now? Or do you still think it doesn't have great upside from here?
Thanks.