Mid-Week Macro (6/17/2026)

Mid-Week Macro

The war in Iran appears to be over, with the MOU signed. Initially, the S&P, gold, and silver bounced on the news. However, they were down today after the new Fed Chair’s (Warsh) first press conference. He implied that inflation would be a priority and came off as more of a hawk than a dove. I think he had to say that because that is the Fed’s mandate. With inflation at 4%, he couldn’t ignore that issue and say it wasn’t a priority. Now, the expectation is that the next move is a possible hike, which I doubt we will see.

The question is, what is the Fed’s priority? Price stability or economic stability? I think it is the latter. However, at this time, there is uncertainty about what they will prioritize. Thus, the S&P was down today from that uncertainty. Gold was dragged down with it.

The S&P is at 7420, which is down 2.5% from its ATH (7620). Gold is at 4250, which is down 24% from its ATH ($5600). Silver is at $68, which is down 43% from its ATH ($120). The HUI is at 721, which is down 26% from its ATH (975).

What comes next? Some think lower oil prices will ignite the economy and snuff out inflation. That’s one possibility, and that outcome would be bad for gold. I do think there will be enough optimism for that outcome to push the stock market higher in the near term. I expect to see higher highs in the S&P between now and early August. This could be the final top forming. Gold is trapped (waiting for the fear trade), but should trend a bit higher with the S&P rising, perhaps reaching $5,000 by August.

So, my prognosis is basically a summer doldrum outcome from here until August, with a slight rise in the S&P, gold, and silver. Then, we will see where we are in August, heading into the midterms. I expect a significant correction in the S&P sometime between early August and late November. That correction should lead to a fear trade into gold, and a big run by gold before year-end. Best guess!