Mid-Week Macro (5/6/2026)

Mid-Week Macro

The S&P 500 has been on a tear. It was up another 1.4% today to close at 7365, another ATH. Gold & Silver decided to come along for the ride. Gold was up $130 today to $4705. Silver was up $4 to $77. The HUI was up 55 points to 786. GDXJ was up 7.8%, and the silver ETFs were up 8%. Those are big moves. Is everything off to the races? As Lee Corso likes to say, not so fast!

Wall Street clearly expects the war in Iran to end soon and oil prices to drop. I’m not expecting a quick ending to this war. Currently, Iran is feeling most of the pain, but if they hold out for another month, the US will also begin to feel the pain. Iran has to know that. If they give in now, not only does the US win, but it does so with distinction, with its arms raised in victory. Is Iran going to choose that outcome? I suppose it’s possible, but I see it as unlikely.

I see only two outcomes for this war: 1) Iran gets a signed deal where they control the Strait, or 2) They control the Strait without a deal.

There are two other possible outcomes, but I see those as unlikely: 3) Iran signs a deal where they do not control the Strait. 4) The war escalates.

Most people expect #3, and that could happen. However, if we do get #3, I doubt it will happen soon. I expect a stalemate into June, and then it gets messy.

Wall Street needs the Strait to be open in May. The longer this takes, the more pressure will build on the markets, and on oil, gasoline, diesel, and fertilizer prices. Got Popcorn?