Mid-Week Macro (5/13/2026)

Mid-Week Macro

The S&P continues to trend, closing today once again at an ATH (7444). This feels like we are approaching a top. The only question is when? My guess is soon, although I would not be surprised if we have to wait until Q4. One thing is clear: it is getting extremely toppy, with an S&P 500 forward PE of 22, the Buffett Indicator at 230%, and technology concentration at an extreme. The market is being carried by the AI trade, but the rest of the economy is struggling. Inflation, high gasoline/diesel prices, and high interest rates are all significant headwinds that the S&P is ignoring at the moment.

Silver is having a good week, closing today at $87. Two weeks ago, it was in the low $70s. Silver remains 38% away from its ATH ($120). Gold and silver like a trending stock market, and they have been following it higher. Gold closed today at $4692, which is a healthy level for gold miner margins. Gold and the HUI are both 19% away from their ATHs. They will continue to follow the market higher, or falter if the S&P decides to correct.

My stance has been that Iran will not give Trump the deal he wants to open the Strait. I only see two outcomes for the war in Iran: 1) It escalates with increased fighting to force the Strait open. 2) Trump walks away. I think Trump is going to walk. It’s really his only option. The longer he prolongs the war, the worse the outcome. The faster he walks, the quicker the economy returns to a sense of normalcy.

If Trump walks, then everything heads higher: stocks, gold, silver, miners. If Trump escalates, then everything heads lower.

So we wait. My guess is that the outcome is 50/50 that Trump walks or escalates. It could go either way. The good news for us is that gold wins in either scenario. The messier the better for gold, but Trump already created a geopolitical mess, and gold is going to embrace that mess. Got Gold?