Mid-Week Macro (4/29/2026)

Mid-Week Macro

The S&P closed today at 7135, which is near an ATH. The MAG7 earnings today did not disappoint, and Wall Street isn’t worried about the war in Iran — yet. They continue to remain optimistic that it will end in the near term. I think their optimism is misplaced. They seem to think Trump holds the cards, but I think it’s likely the other way around. Iran will decide how this ends.

I only see two outcomes: 1) No resolution, and Trump eventually leaves (probably in June). 2) Trump signs a bad deal.

Both of those are good for gold. So, at some point in the near future, the war will end, and gold will take off and head to an ATH. We are 3 months into this gold correction. Gold is down $1000 from its January high ($5600), and the HUI is down 25%. We are close to the bottom for both, but I expect to go lower in May.

Gold is likely to bottom somewhere around $4300, and the HUI around 650. I expect this outcome sometime between mid-May and mid-June. Then we begin the next uptrend for gold/silver. Best guess.

The final battle (between the S&P and gold) is about to begin. Gold will begin to trend higher in May or June, and the S&P will begin trending lower. Their paths will cross somewhere between 6000 and 5500 on the S&P. The key is getting the S&P below 6000. Once the S&P is below 6000, look for gold to begin rising. That will likely happen sometime between June 1st and October 1st. Hopefully sooner. Stay tuned.