Mid-Week Macro (4/16/2025)

Mid-Week Macro

Gold was up $100 today to $3350. However, it has dropped a bit and is currently at $3330. Still, $3330 is quite a jump in April. Silver refuses to join the party and is currently at $32.28 (a signal to be cautious). The HUI has done well in April and is up to 406. I did not expect the HUI to rip to 400 without silver, but that is what has happened.

I should be excited with gold over $3300, but I remain in wait mode. I want to see confirmation, and I want a fear trade. I know that for gold/silver miners to have an extended bull market, you need a fear trade. What is a fear trade? That is when nobody wants to own the S&P 500. There have been many periods in history when stocks have languished. It is quite common for the stock market to languish for years and even decades. We need the languishing to begin, where no one wants to touch stocks.

During a fear trade, that is when gold/silver miners do well because they tend to be one of the few sectors that do well during economic turmoil. In the 1930s, Homestake mining did great. In the 1970s, many gold/silver miners were 100-baggers. In the 2000s, many gold/silver miners were 50-baggers. This time, I’m expecting many 25-baggers.

We need two things to confirm a bull market in gold/silver miners: 1) Silver to get above $35. 2) The S&P 500 to get below 5000. I think both will happen soon, but it could take a few months. So, we remain in wait mode. The champagne isn’t even on ice yet, but we can put the bottle on the counter.

The Trump Tariffs are the trigger, and Trump is not going to back down. He realizes that if our trade policies do not change, then America is doomed. He has decided to change those policies, and tariffs are the heart of his strategy. Unfortunately, Triffin’s Dilemma and Von Mises’s debt bubble are both climaxing at this time. It’s a problem that is not solvable in a short period of time, and America’s political system is too fragmented to solve it over an extended period of time. Subsequently, Trump is going to pop the debt bubble and create an unfixable mess.

I’ve seen a few people on X compare the Titanic hitting the iceberg to Trump’s tariffs. I think that is a fitting analogy. There is no surviving this. We are going to sink. It won’t be long now for the S&P 500 to be stuck below 5000 and the feat trade to reach a fever pitch.