Mid-Week Macro (4/15/2026)

Mid-Week Macro

The S&P 500 closed today at an ATH at 7022, and the futures for tomorrow’s open are currently at 7075. My reaction? Wall Street is high on hopium. I expect the S&P 500 to crash in 2026 and close the year below 4500. Wall Street clearly thinks the war in Iran is over. I have my doubts. I still expect this to have a messy ending that could linger.

Even if the war ends in April (best-case scenario), we still have high inflation, high interest rates, and high gasoline prices. None of those will drop back to pre-war levels anytime soon. If the war doesn’t end in April, these factors will only get worse.

I thought the economy was slowing without the war, and the war surely didn’t help. Geopolitical stress remains and is not going away. Inflation remains and is not going away. The list of headwinds for the economy is numerous (I recently listed 25 on X), and the S&P 500 has no business at ATH levels.

Gold and silver are both stuck in a price range. It’s unlikely they will run to new ATHs before we get our next correction on Wall Street. I want to buy several gold and silver miners right now, but the smart move is to wait. It is difficult to put the brakes on and wait for the next correction. But it’s coming. We might have to wait several weeks, and perhaps months, but it’s coming. That’s my take. The S&P won’t get to 4500 in 2026 without gold and silver getting smashed.