Mid-Week Macro (4/1/2026)

Mid-Week Macro

On Monday, Trump said he was ready to end the war. On Tuesday and today, the markets rallied. Gold loves a trending S&P 500 and ripped from its recent correction low of $4100 to $4793 today. Silver ripped from its recent low on March 23rd of $61 to $76. Tonight, they are back to $4665 and $72. Ouch. I’m not surprised. I thought this was a dead-cat bounce. Why? Because I don’t think this mess in Iran is over. April is going to be messy.

I thought the market (S&P 500) had lost its mind the past two days. Why were investors buying? What was the all-clear sign that this war was over? Iran provided 6 points they wanted resolved, and every single one was a non-starter. Did anyone really think they were bluffing on all 6 points? What are we going to give them to open the Strait? Threats clearly aren’t working. Tonight, Trump said in a national TV address that he plans to bomb them hard for 2-3 weeks. The market didn’t like that. The S&P 500 futures are down 1% (gold and silver came along for the ride). There goes the optimism of the war ending.

No one knows how this war ends or the fallout of the Strait remaining closed or only partially reopening. Uncertainty is massive, and yet the stock market has been having a party the past two days. Lol. Now that the victory party on Wall Street is over, we could see the S&P crash to 6000 and gold retrace to $4100, perhaps lower. Stay tuned.