Mid-Week Macro (3/18/2026)
Mid-Week Macro
Gold dropped $150 today to $4847. It is now down 13% from its ATH. Silver is at $76 and dow 36% from its ATH. The HUI is at 753 and down 22% from its ATH. The S&P 500 is at 6624 and down 5% from its ATH. Iran is causing havoc. As I have been saying, we can expect a correction in gold below $4800, and that silver and the HUI would follow gold.
My guess is that gold crashed today from countries impacted by the Strait of Hormuz selling gold to raise revenue from lost oil sales. That will be a temporary outcome. Once the Strait is reopened, gold will likely resume its upward trend. My guess is that we will see an ATH in gold by the end of June. If I’m right, then gold should begin to trend higher in May or early June. The chance of an extended correction is low IMO.
The correction is likely not over. My expected range of $4500 to $4800 for the next cycle low in gold might be too optimistic. I hope not. I hope $4500 holds. The gold price will determine what silver and the HUI do. I expected $72 silver to be retested, but now $60 has entered the picture. The HUI might retest $700 (where we began the year), which I did not think would happen. This could be an ugly correction.
The good news is that the macro fundamentals for gold have only improved from this war. The US economy was already weakening into a recession. Now that outcome is becoming more obvious. The geopolitical tension between China and the US is only getting worse. Once the recession arrives, the US economy is in big trouble. Inflation won’t be going away, and stagflation will arrive. The UST bond market will weaken. Gold will rise. Silver will follow.
Consider this a buying opportunity for gold/silver miners. Wall Street is dumping them and doesn’t want to own any gold/silver miners. Consider this a gift. When the Majors are printing as 4-baggers, it doesn’t get much better. You can buy the Elite 8 and average a 4-bagger. Below are the returns of the Elite 8 at $7,000 gold. These returns assume that we reach $7,000 gold in the next 24 to 36 months, and that $7,000 holds for at least 8 months. Plus, inflation costs won’t rise too much.
Anglogold Ashanti: 6-Bagger
Kinross: 5-Bagger
Gold Fields: 4.7-Bagger
Barrick: 4.4-Bagger
Alamos: 4.2-Bagger
Newmont: 4.1-Bagger
Agnico-Eagle: 3.5-Bagger
Lundin Gold: 2.7-Bagger