Mid-Week Macro (2/26/2025)
Mid-Week Macro
1) The S&P has shown a bit of softness this week, closing today at 5956, and below the bullish 6000 level. This does not mean the uptrend is over. We will need a few weeks to find out that answer. The weakness in the S&P brought down the 10-Year rate to 4.27%. That is quite a drop from only a week ago, pointing to concern about softness in the economy.
2) Gold followed the S&P lower, closing at $2913 today. The miners remained soft, with the HUI at 322, and silver is below $32. All the bullish talk of silver breaking out has calmed down. My thesis continues to play out: we are going to need the 15-year bull market on Wall St to end before silver and the miners break out into an extended bull market.
3) The DXY has been sticky and closed today at 106. It didn't come down with the 10-Year rate. How is Trump going to get it lower? Oil was also soft, closing at $68, pointing to economic softness. Bitcoin crashed to $84. What is that telling us? Liquidity issues on Wall St?
4) Which way is the S&P heading in March? Back up or trending down? Nobody knows, but the Trump tariffs are headwinds for the market. March could set the tone for the rest of the year, especially H1. Where will the S&P finish March? By mid-March we should have a clearer picture. I'm still expecting a crash in stocks at some point in 2025, which could begin at any moment.