Mid-Week Macro (1/28/2026)
Mid-Week Macro
Current Gold spot is $5529. That’s not a typo. Silver is at $117, and $131 in Shanghai tonight. Gold was up $200 today, and GDXJ was only up 2%. Wall Street doesn’t believe this move in gold and silver is real. Newmont is currently trading at 7.9 FCF multiple with an $18B FCF run-rate. It’s run-rate was $13B last week! They added $5B in FCF in one week if gold prices hold. At that massive FCF run-rate, its multiple should be at least 15. Coeur Mining has an FCF multiple of 5.4 and an FCF run-rate of $4.9B. These numbers are stunning. All gold and silver have to do is stay constant for 6 months, and the share prices are going to rip.
What are the new floor levels for gold and silver? It’s hard to guess, but let’s try. Could gold drop 15%? Perhaps. So, that is $4,675. Let’s call $4,500 the new floor. For silver, let’s use 20%. That would be $89. Let’s call $85 the new floor. Guess what? If those levels hold, the miners are going higher this year. Corrections are no longer a threat for 2026. At least, that’s what it looks like. The only way the miners get hurt is if those floor levels don’t hold.
My take is that gold is going higher in 2026. Many analysts think gold has run too far too fast. Perhaps, but the macro factors driving gold are only getting better. What’s going to push gold down? Historically, gold bull markets have ended from an emerging new business growth cycle (1980, 2012). Do you see any vibrancy in this economy? I don’t. Gold is not ready to go back into hibernation.
I bought gold/silver miners today after the 2-day VRIC conference. I felt little trepidation that I’m buying into a correction. Sure, we will get one, but this gold/silver bull market still feels early. The FCF multiples are too low. You don’t have a bull market in gold/silver miners and never see any froth, and we have had zero froth. In fact, the miners all remain cheap. I don’t expect froth until the fear trade arrives, and that probably won’t happen until the second half of the year. My guess is that the mania phase won’t arrive until 2027. Get on board. This train ride has a way to go.
right on there..Don
just my thinking...SO...who..is shorting miners and selling into strenght...?
years ago, I saw a U tube video, with a mining ex...that said that there was som sort of
bid pulling on the TSX...at close..
.didn´t really comprehende it, but he was convincing and trying..to do something about it....?
This is getting..weird er...by the day...
FMaj silver down 8 % on a 1 % ag drop, and the next day up 3 % but FM only claws back 4 %..
even my side bet Novo ress is up 67% one day but finishes +20 % and down the next...
I could go on...but you get the point...
++ Allied gold sold to CHINA..at 5% premium...)) WTF....?? they blocked a deal only last year..!
OUR miners need to buy back more shares...better than divedends..because I choose to cash out...?
and now...we have 3..different silver prices...out of whack...
some thing somewhere is about to break..., I think...?
I think these next two earnings seasons will change everything. Mining is expensive and risky, but, with these prices, junior miners with reasonable leadership and track records will have to work hard to fall below last year’s earnings. My only fear is for miners in countries with corruption and/or organized crime (mainly Peru, Mexico and Spain). The cartels are switching from drugs to precious metals. Corrupt officials are giving permits and bids to their friends. Mines are in real danger of extortion and violence as the prices of their product skyrockets. Even without cartels, Spain frightens me more than any other country. The EU needs to put Spain on a leash after their government’s inexcusable handling of Emerita Resources. Portugal is hostile to mining because of environmental concerns (understandable) but Spain is just protecting criminal bureaucrats and crony capitalists. I’m not as worried about Africa (outside of Ghana). I actually think Ghana’s decision will cause surrounding countries to steal miners with better conditions. These countries need consistent mining revenue. Thanks again Don:)