Mid-Week Macro (11/5/2025)
Mid-Week Macro
The S&P 500 is at 6796, which is near an ATH. Nothing has changed. We continue to wait for the stock market to crash and the 15+ year bull market to end. Until that happens, it’s just noise for the gold/silver miners.
Gold is at $3982 and has corrected 10% from its recent rally to $4371. Silver ($47.89) corrected 13%, and the HUI (566) 20%. I said to expect a 5% to 10% correction in gold and a 20% to 30% correction in your gold/silver miner portfolio. Unfortunately, it came when the S&P 500 remains strong. This means we have another correction coming. That correction could come at any time. Will the S&P continue to remain strong in Q4, or will it crash? Stay tuned.
My guess is that the next cycle low for gold will be around $3700, and for silver around $42, when the S&P finally crashes. However, before that outcome, gold and silver could rally. Many investors are waiting for that correction, but it might not come for a few months. The risk of waiting is that gold could take off at any moment and reach another ATH. This is why you want to constantly buy these dips. You never know what a bull market will do. The bull will buck, but it will also run.
I am confident that gold is going to $5000, $6000, or $7000 before there will be any type of reset to stop the surge. The surge in gold is for a reason, and that reason is very easy to understand: the US government bond market is going to fail. It can no longer support an economy that no longer generates enough real income to service its debt. That debt includes government, corporate, and household debt that has exploded to unserviceable levels. The world is watching, and the world has figured it out.
I doubt $5000 gold is the stopping point. If you use 2% for the GSR, then you get $100 silver. I think those two targets are conservative. Wall Street hasn’t figured this out yet, which blows my mind. Instead, Wall Street continues its Kumbaya party, pretending this bull market will last forever. They will pivot to gold/silver/miners when they figure it out. We are still early. The FCF multiples reveal how early we are.