Mid-Week Macro (1/15/2025)

Mid-Week Macro

1) The story today was the CPI, which came in at 2.9%. That made Wall St happy, and the S&P 500 zoomed back above 5900. Everyone remains bullish. I expected this, and I remain bullish Q1. I expect to see the S&P 500 make a final run to around 6300.


2) Gold followed the S&P and closed at $2700 (spot). Silver and the miners lagged as usual. Silver is under $31 and the HUI is under 300. I expect silver and the miners to remain trapped under their breakout levels ($35 and 350) until the stock market finally dies. My guess is Q2, but March could get interesting.


3) The DXY is at 109 and the 10-Yr at 4.6. Many analysts think the 10-Yr is heading to 5%, and that the DXY will remain strong. Those two factors will create headwinds for the S&P, but I still expect a 3% to 5% move higher for the S&P before this party ends. Gold might get to $2800, but not much more. Silver to $34. Both will be fake outs, with a correction coming.


4) It's all about the S&P 500. That's all that matters. First, stocks will get smacked in the face (but not until Q2), and then everything follows in a cascade of epic proportions. Get ready for the fear trade. It's coming.