Mid-Week Macro (11/26/2025)
Mid-Week Macro
The S&P closed today above 6800, near its ATH. As I expected, gold and silver followed. The key for gold and silver in November was going to be the S&P. It has remained strong, and gold and silver have rebounded. Gold closed today above $4100 and silver above $53. The HUI (gold miner index) closed at 660. We have almost had a complete retracement in the HUI, which reached 687 in October. Unfortunately, our problem remains, and that problem is the S&P 500.
Until the S&P 500 stops rising, the HUI can’t break out (not to levels we want to see). In fact, gold and silver are currently trapped by the S&P. Sure, it’s possible the S&P could keep trending, but our problem would not go away. We need the S&P to stop rising so that gold can decouple and head higher, taking silver and the gold/silver miners with it. However, before that happens, I expect one more deep correction. I was hoping gold, silver, and the HUI would rebound in November to get ready for the S&P crash, and that happened. Now we are in a good position for the coming crash.
Will the crash happen in December or in Q1? It’s impossible to know, but my guess is that December will not be uneventful. We have reached the volatility stage (three 2% down days in November) and the end of this bull market. I expect the next cycle low in gold to reach between $3500 and $3700. Now that we are above $4100, and could get back to $4300 before the crash, there is a chance that we won’t see $3700. Gold will determine what silver and the miners do. The October correction was 12% gold, 15% silver, and 22% miners (HUI). It will be similar this time, although potentially deeper.
I bought the October correction, and now I’ll wait for the crash (I have a list of stocks lined up). Those who exited the train in October might still be off. I think they will be fine waiting. If they jump back on now, they will probably catch a falling knife. It’s probably better to stay on the sidelines until the crash arrives, although there is always the chance that gold (or silver) blasts off. I think that has a low probability.
Don, I subscribed last week, but its still asking me to subscribe to view some items. Please advise. Thanks.
Don, as a subscriber I have a question that’s near and dear to my heart
I’m positioned with calls and stocks right now that are doing great and I think I bought the right stuff with the right calls going out far enough, but do you have any recommendations about selling to batten down the hatches for the crash that you see coming before things bounce back?