Mid-Week Macro (11/19/2025)

Mid-Week Macro

The stock market has been volatile so far in November. I think that will continue, leading to a crash sometime in the next few weeks or months. The S&P closed today at 6642, but the futures are currently at 6732 after a good NVIDIA earnings report. What comes next? 7000 or 6000? Stay tuned. One thing is clear, other than the AI trade, everything else is weak and getting worse. Freight, labor, housing, etc., are all screaming that the economy is in trouble. You don’t get a University of Michigan consumer confidence number of 50 without problems.

As I have said, gold will follow the S&P in November. The S&P has remained strong, and gold is back to $4100. Silver is back to $51. Both are down 6% from their October ATHs. The HUI is at 622 and remains down 9%. If the S&P finds a way to get to 7000 this month, gold will likely rip back to $4300. Conversely, if the S&P slips, then gold will go sub $4000. I’m bearish the S&P and expect gold to reach a cycle low between $3500 and $3800, and silver between $42 and $43. Get ready for a deep correction sometime in the next few weeks or months.

This story has been playing out for decades and is reaching its culmination. You can see it if you are paying attention. Wall Street thinks the US economy is a juggernaut and that the Fed can fix any economic problem. They are wrong. This is the end. We have been using debt to prop up our standard of living and playing a dangerous game of debt doesn’t matter. Guess what? It does. The endgame is when inflation appears, which it has. Now the doom loop begins. We need to print to keep the economy growing, but the amount needed will create too much inflation. It’s a catch-22, with no solution. It won’t be long now before the cat is out of the bag, and everyone realizes our predicament. Got Gold?