Mid-Week Macro (10/9/2024)
Mid-Week Macro
1) The S&P 500 reached another ATH today, closing at 5792. I think it is time to short the market. Sure, it could go to 6000 or higher, but this feels like a blow-off top to the 15-year bull market. I think it is just about done. In fact, I don’t think this melt-up will last through October. My expectation is that the S&P will fall below 5500 before the election (November 5th), and then crash when Harris wins. Of course, I’m just guessing and could be wrong. Wall St is uber bullish right now and thinks this market has legs and will run higher until year-end.
2) Gold and silver have been soft this week. Gold closed at $2607 and silver at $30.41 today. The HUI closed at 309. A week ago, the HUI was at 330, gold was hitting ATHs, knocking on $2700, and silver was trying to reach a new cycle high above $32.50. I said that last week's rally was likely going nowhere in the near-term, and to expect a rug pull in Q4. I still see the rug pull coming, with gold/silver/miners all going about 10% to 15% lower. That would be a mild correction. I only expect a mild correction because gold is sniffing out uncertainty and wants to go higher. Gold is showing zero signs of crashing.
3) The only number to watch is the S&P 500. As long as it remains above 5500, then not much will happen with gold/silver/miners. Below 5500, and we can break out the popcorn as it gets interesting. Below 5200, and the early selling will begin. Below 5000, and selling on Wall St will pick up. Below 4800, and we will be on the verge of a crash. Below 4500, and we likely have a recession. The question I'm interested in is, when does gold bottom and put in a cycle low? Stay tuned. My guess is around 4800.