Mid-Week Macro (10/30/2034)

Mid-Week Macro

1) The stock market continues to remain strong, with the S&P 500 above 5800 and close to an ATH. Gold hit $2800 last night on the futures market, and his another ATH with the spot price close to $2800. Silver continues to lag gold and couldn’t get above $35, although has been strong this week, closing today near $34. The HUI has also lagged. It was at 348 last week and is trading at 331 today. Why is the HUI lagging? Newmont has been pulling it down, but that’s not the only story. I think the HUI is lagging heading into November election uncertainty. 

2) I think gold wants to go higher, and the stock market wants to go lower. However, I don’t know when that decoupling will occur. It could happen as soon as November, or perhaps December, or even Q1 2025. The election results will have a big impact on that outcome. I’m expecting November to be volatile, with lower prices in everything except bonds and the DXY. But gold has been so strong this year that I doubt we will have a deep correction, or correction that lasts more than a week or two. I keep raising my target for the next cycle low in gold. I now think $2400 will hold. 

3) I didn’t buy any stocks in October because of the uncertainty heading into November. If you look at the gold chart, it has been going straight up. At some point, we will get a correction. I think that correction happens in November, but that’s just a guess. I expect to buy a stock or two in November if we do get a correction. We are running out of time to accumulate gold/silver miners before the coming bull market takes off. Once the HUI is above 350, I think it will take off like a rocket to 400 as FOMO takes hold.