Mid-Week Macro (10/29/2025)

Mid-Week Macro

The Fed lowered rates today .25%. The expectation is they will lower them again .25% in December. This has created bullishness on Wall St. The S&P 500 closed today at 6887, which is less than 1% from an ATH. We continue to wait for the S&P to crash and the recession to arrive. It will, but Wall St is wearing rose-colored glasses in tandem with taking hopium pills. It’s a powerful combination. UPS and Amazon both cut jobs before the holiday season, and Wall St didn’t even notice. Yesterday, the S&P was positive, and 80% of the stocks were down. It was the worst breath recorded since 1990. Wall St didn’t notice. Lol. When you are in a bubble, you can expect myopic behavior. This is a classic bubble.

November is historically one of the strongest months of the year for Wall St. I expect the Kumbaya party to continue. I’m shocked, but we are going to see 7000 S&P soon, and perhaps 7200 in November from a short squeeze from the massive hedging/shorts that are being used. December is likely going to be dicey. It is common for December to be volatile, and that’s my expectation.

From a strong November on the S&P, I expect gold and silver to rebound. This is what gold has repeatedly done since March 2024. Every time gold dropped below the S&P’s uptrend, it rebounded. There have been numerous gold corrections in the past year that rebounded, although not as deep as this current 10% correction. I don’t think gold will rebound quickly back to $4350 in November, but $4250 could easily happen.

I think gold’s 10% correction is a precursor to the coming crash on Wall St. I’m expecting gold to rebound to around $4250 in November and then correct again in December with the stock market. My targets are $3700 for gold and $42 for silver. If it doesn’t happen in December, then perhaps January or February. The HUI is at 570, I expect the next cycle low to be around 500, hopefully much higher. So, the next buy zone is 500 to 550.