Mid-Week Macro (10/22/2025)

Mid-Week Macro

The story this week (and last Friday) was the correction in gold/silver/miners. Gold corrected 7.2%. Silver corrected 11%. The HUI corrected 15%. Most investors saw their gold/silver miner portfolio drop around 20%, depending on how much exposure they had to juniors. I have been expecting a 20% to 30% correction. I did not think gold would go down more than 10%. This correction may not be over, and gold could still go down 10% or more. I also said that any correction would not last more than 4-8 weeks if this bull market has legs, which I think it does. This correction could reverse fairly quickly if the S&P remains strong. Gold has been strongly correlated with the S&P since March 2024.

The bad news is the S&P 500 remains near an ATH. That means we continue to have that crash looming. I still think the deepest correction in gold/silver/miners will occur when the S&P crashes. When will that happen? I have no idea. The stock market is clearly in a bubble (read my analysis that I posted yesterday on my Subtack called “It’s Over.” https://dondurrett.substack.com/). We have weeks or months before the stock market crashes. We are getting close.

The smart move is to buy this dip, and all significant dips. I plan to buy stocks tomorrow. I also plan to buy when the S&P 500 drops below 5500. If you are worried about gold/silver going lower, then read my Substack post that I mentioned in the previous paragraph. The trend for gold is up, and the odds of that outcome are extremely favorable. Silver will follow gold. Deep corrections are normal for gold, even in a bull market. From 2002 to 2010, the average annual correction in gold was over 10%. During that period, gold rose by over 600%. I think the corrections will be shallower this time because gold has more demand today, but we won’t avoid deep corrections.