Mid-Week Macro (10/16/2024)

Mid-Week Macro

1) It’s the same story as last week. Stocks and gold are both up at ATHs, while silver ($31.77) and the miners (326 HUI) lag. It’s exciting to see gold at $2677, but not exciting to see silver and the miners lag. Why are they lagging? I think that is apparent. Gold/silver mining stock investors have been waiting 10+ years for the miners to break out, and they want to see a reason why, other than high gold prices. They want to see Wall St buy some gold/silver miners, and they want to see a fear trade. 

2) Gold is at an ATH, but nobody can figure out why. It clearly is not obvious. Gold is telling us something, but what? I think it is telling us that the US bond market is fragile. If the US bond market breaks, gold is going to the moon. Gold/silver mining investors want to know why gold is at an ATH, and they are waiting to find out. I think this Presidential election will reveal the outcome, which is the end of the 15-year bull market on Wall St. 

3) The gold/silver miners and silver are waiting for the bull market in stocks to end. They both know it’s coming. Gold is getting out in front of that outcome and ready to rip higher. November is going to be exciting, but I think the selling on Wall St will begin before the election as Wall St becomes nervous of the outcome. November is going to be volatile, but mostly to the downside. The good news for us is that gold wants to go higher because of the problems with the US bond market. For that reason, I don’t expect much more than a 10% correction to around $2350 (in November). That will be a mild hiccup.