Mid-Week Macro (10/1/2025)

Mid-Week Macro

The S&P 500 closed today at 6711, another ATH. Gold and silver came along for the ride at $3862 and $47.19 (spot). As long as the S&P remains near its ATH, I doubt gold and silver will correct. A correction that is coming for all three, with the S&P leading the way. When? I expect it to begin at any moment, but it might be weeks or months.

Gold is knocking on the door of $4000, and silver is trying to reach $50. We could see both outcomes in October if the S&P remains near its ATH. Trying to identify the floor for gold, silver, and the HUI is only a guessing game. My guess is $3300 to $3400 for gold, $34 to $35 for silver, and 450 to 500 for the HUI. Hopefully, we won’t reach the lower ranges.

Gold and silver have been ripping higher, with gold up 40% for the year and silver 45%. This isn’t about inflation. It’s about uncertainty with the US economy and global finance. This is about Triffin’s dilemma playing out. The US is trapped and in a bad position. It has been relying on debt to finance its economy, and the rest of the world is balking at continuing the game.

Wall Street is pretending that all is well, but it’s not, and gold is the siren blaring that something is broken. What does gold know? It knows that the US is in deep trouble. The irony is that Wall Street (and investors) haven’t figured it out yet. That won’t last much longer. As I continue to say, gold is leading for a reason. The stock market is the poser.