Mid-Week Macro
Today was a strong day for gold and silver. We had an ATH for gold, with spot closing at $4018. Silver closed at $48.72, which was a cycle high and very close to an ATH. The HUI closed at 638, an ATH. It’s amazing that the HUI reached an ATH without silver getting above $50. My target of 1500 to 2000 for the HUI looks good. We should see a 1000+ HUI in 2026. That is amazing considering the HUI was a 200 in February 2024.
The S&P continues to remain strong, closing today at 6753, not far from its ATH. We continue to wait for the S&P to reach a top and finally roll over. Everyone seems to recognize that this is not only a bubble, but a blow-off top, and bad things are going to happen soon. Why? Because the stock market has no fundamental support. The S&P is trading at a 23 PE, and most of that is from the MAG7. Half of the economy is acting like it is a recession. The manufacturing PMI has been sub-50 (contraction) for over 2 years, with no signs of life. Housing is weak and getting weaker. Autos are worse than housing. Retail is flat, with tariffs kicking in Q4. If you are looking for green shoots, good luck.
Gold is the canary and has been the canary for some time. Gold and the S&P 500 should not both be making ATHs. Only one of them is telling the truth, and I think we know which one is the poser. Gold is up 45% in 2026, and the S&P is up 13%. Gold is kicking its butt for a reason. Gold is not the poser here.
Gold just crossed $4,000 because the US economy and bond market are in trouble. The US has been trying to live off debt for 40+ years. That game is over, and gold is telling us that bad things are coming. JPMorgan recently recommended to its customers to consider a 60-20-20 portfolio. This was heresy only a few years ago. If you worked for JPMorgan a few years ago and were recommending that, you would have been fired. Get ready. We are close.
Today is 10-10-25, what happened to 1911 that drove it Down???