Friday Recap (8/23/2024)

AU: $2509 ($2507 - Last Week Spot)
AG: $29.77 (29.02)
HUI: 318 (312)
DXY: 100 (102)
S&P: 5631 (5554)
10-Yr: 3.8% (3.8%)
Oil: $75 ($76)

It felt like gold was strong this week because we traded at an ATH. However, what matters is the Friday close, and we were flat for the week. The miners were up a bit, but the HUI was only up 6 points. That's not a bull market type of move. When you get a bull market run in the miners, you will go up at least 5% per week. Silver did finally bounce, almost closing above $30, but sub $30 is not a breakout. We were at $32.50 before summer began. In many respects, silver remains in a correction and not a breakout.

A breakout in the miners will happen somewhere between 325 and 350 on the HUI. The cycle high was 360 in August 2020, so we are still trying to reverse that correction (the ATH was 635 in 2011). I think 330 will probably do the trick and we will be off to the races. As for silver, we still need to get through 3 resistance levels before we make a run at an ATH, which are $30, $32.50, and $35. Thankfully, they are all within reach in Q4.

The miner's and silver's poor performance is signaling that a rug-pull is coming in Q4. Little Sis (silver) is hanging back because she knows what's coming. The same is true for the miners. I expect gold to drop 5% to 10% and the miners to drop 10% to 20%. A 10% drop in silver takes us to around $2250. For this reason, I think that $2200 will hold. If that's the case, then the HUI should hold 250 (381 - 20% = 255). If that is the worst-case scenario, then gold/silver/miners are going to close the year at much higher levels than we are at today. I expect to see $2600 to $2700 gold, $40 silver, and 400+ HUI.

The stock market is near ATHs. I'm surprised it has been this strong, but I expect the wheels to come off soon - probably after the first rate cut in September. I'm expecting Q4 to be wild, as fear in the financial markets reaches levels not seen since 2008. I expect the S&P to close the year below 4000. So, we should finally get our expected decoupling of the stock market and gold/silver. Look for the markets to begin selling off soon after the first rate cut in September.