Friday Recap (8/15/2025)

AU: $3336 ($3397 - One Week Ago)

AG: $37.91 (38.27)

HUI: 476 (472)

DXY: 97.7 (98.0)

S&P: 6449 (6389)

10-Yr: 4.32% (4.28%)

Oil: $66 (66)

Gold and silver dropped this week, but the HUI went up. That was a first, and a good sign. A sign that a bull market in the miners is coming. All we need is for silver to get above $40, and I expect the bull market in gold/silver miners to erupt. We are very close, but we need the S&P 500 to stop rising, which continues to make ATHs. The S&P closed this week at 6449, which is an all-time weekly close. Once the S&P stops rising, a decoupling will occur. Gold will go higher, and the S&P will go lower.

Of course, that decoupling likely won't happen without a bit of a correction in gold/silver/miners. My guess is that gold will drop 5% to 8% once the correction comes, most likely in the next 4-8 weeks. We can expect the miners to drop 10% to 20%. That is a mild correction, and one you can expect every year. Go back and check the first decade of the 2000s, when the miners were ripping. 10% to 20% annual corrections were the norm, but they were short-lived.

Wall Street remains bullish, with most analysts pointing to their favorite numbers, such as GDP growth (which is inflated from deficit spending), unemployment (which is actually crashing), earnings (which are actually weak for more than half the companies), and inflation (which is actually rising). Anyone who thinks this is a strong economy is fooling themselves. This is not only a weak economy, but one ready to fall into an extended recession. When the recession comes, it will be obvious, with all of the ugly data rising to the surface. The ugliest data point is the fact that we are living on debt and don't have enough income to offset it. Once the Fed is shown to be feckless, reality will show its face.

What is about to happen will rhyme with history: 1929, 1979, 2001, 2008. All of the bad recessions of the past will give us a guidepost, but this time we won't have a way out. Japan experienced a lost decade when their bubble popped. It will be worse for us. Our rug-pull will be more severe because Japan didn't have to deal with inflation, and they didn't lose their bond market. Their society muddled onward and resembled the past. Ours won't. We will have to reorganize society and start over. It won't be fun. At least for gold bugs, we will be prepared with our investments in gold/silver/miners.