Friday Recap (7/3/2026)
Current (Last Week) -- (% from ATH | ATH)
AU: $4,175 ($4,070) -- 25% from ATH ($5,608)
AG: $62 ($58) -- 48% from ATH ($121)
HUI: 667 (652) -- 32% from ATH (986)
DXY: 100 (101)
S&P 500: 7,483 (7,353) -- -1.8% At ATH (7620)
10-Year: 4.4% (4.3%)
Gold reached $3959, which was down 29%. Gold reached $56, which was down 56%. The HUI reached 624, which was down 37%. Are those the floor? I doubt it, but it doesn’t matter. The next leg up is coming. The first leg was from August to January. The next leg will be even better. But before that leg occurs, I expect one more deep correction. I already have my buy list ready. Hopefully, it won’t happen.
I don’t expect the second leg up to begin until November, but it could begin sooner. I want to see gold reach $5,000 by November 1st, but I’ll be satisfied with December 1st. Then gold should rip in 2027 to $6,000 to $7,000. That is leg 2. The final leg is likely in 2028, when we experience the mania and topping process, perhaps reaching $8,000. Am I bullish? More so than ever.
This feels a lot like Lieutenant Dan riding out the hurricane. The correction feels a lot like: “Is that all you got?” The gold bull market is still alive and ready for a rebound. But we will likely get one more smack in the face (one more correction), as the gold bull refuses to let any posers ride for free. Only the true believers will be allowed to hang on.
July should be a small upleg in gold, but once we get to mid-August, negative seasonality for the S&P 500 begins until mid-October. I expect the next deep correction sometime during that period. Last year, the S&P did not correct more than 5% during that period. This year should be more volatile. Especially after the AI bubble that has formed, with semiconductors 19% of the S&P.
The gold/S&P 500 ratio is currently .5. That is very low, and why sentiment in the gold/silver miners is terrible. We need that to rise to .7. We reached .8 on January 29th. We need to get back there. That was our first attempt at a breakout. Next time, we will likely stay above that level and head to 2. Once above .7%, we will have the wind at our back. In 2012, we reached 1.7. I expect to reach 2 during this gold bull market. That would be something like $8,000 gold and 4000 S&P.
So, we hang on until November, and then gold will either have begun leg 2 or ready to begin.
