Friday Recap (7/25/2025)

AU: $3336 ($3347 - Last Week Spot)

AG: $38.08 (38.11)

HUI: 442 (421)

DXY: 97.4 (98.4)

S&P: 6388 (6296)

10-Yr: 4.39% (4.41%)

Oil: $65 (67)

The banksters pulled off their Friday Mr Slammy trick once again. Gold and silver were fairly strong all week, then boom, Friday arrives. Gold down $31 and silver down .91 cents. Plus, gold was down $94 and silver down $1.12 after a strong start to the week on Monday and Tuesday. Gold (spot) was well over $3400, and silver (spot) almost reached $40. The HUI reached a cycle high above 450. The banksters didn't like that.

The S&P was hitting one new ATH after another this week. Ironically, no one believes in this market. Why not? Because it's obvious that the economy is not as strong as Wall Street is trying to spin it. Manufacturing PMIs have been below 50 (the breakeven point) for 29 straight months (those are recession numbers). Housing is dismal, other than high prices. Autos are facing tariff issues. Retail is facing cost-of-living issues. And now high tariffs (averaging more than 15%) will kick-in on August 1st.

Wall Street keeps telling us not to worry about the tariffs. That they will be absorbed by the supply chain. Lol. Good luck with that when you go to buy a Toyota, Hyundai, or BMW. The bottom line is this: Wall Street is betting on one thing and one thing only: lower interest rates. What they are not telling you is that it will take the Fed at least a year to get rates low enough to have an impact.

I think we are now heading into a 6-week gauntlet of seasonality that will claim its pound of flesh. If we get to mid-October without at least a 5% correction, I will be surprised. And it could be 10% or more. The question is, how will the market react after the correction arrives? Will we once again have a V-shaped recovery and right back up to an ATH? Stay tuned.

Be prepared for gold, silver, and the miners to correct with the S&P. My targets are $3100 to $3200 for gold, $32 to $34 for silver, and 350 to 380 for the HUI. I'm hoping my upper ranges hold. Either way, any correction (for gold/silver/miners) will be short-lived and should be bought.