Friday Recap (7/12/2025)
AU: $3354 ($3334 - Last Week Spot)
AG: $38.23 (36.85)
HUI: 430 (425)
DXY: 97.8 (96.9)
S&P: 6280 (6279)
10-Yr: 4.36% (4.32%)
Oil: $67 (66)
The stock market and gold were flat for the week, but silver ripped to $38. That is above the technical breakout level. I remember when gold broke out in March 2024. At that time, I became bullish gold and believed that it would now trend to $5,000 and nothing would prevent that outcome. I'm not quite there yet for silver, but many TA gurus think silver has broken out. Let's hope they are right.
One thing that could push silver higher is the massive paper shorts on COMEX. Can the COMEX banksters continue to dump paper shorts (which are already at massive level) to control the price? Or, will one of the banksters begin to cover, creating a squeeze? Stay tuned.
I remain convinced that the Trump Tariffs will lead to trade wars that result in a recession. The only question for me is timing. Will it begin next week, next month, out in a few months? I don't know. But I do think that is the eventual outcome.
A big vulnerability of the stock market is passive funds, which make up about 50% of the stock market. The creates the potential for huge volatility to the downside, and could spark a quick sell-off. Normally, passive funds only are buyers. However, if they become sellers, they are so massive that there will not be enough buyers to offset these sell orders. Any selling on the passive side, could create a whoosh down and end this 15-year bull market.
In addition to the massive passive funds, the stock market is overweight retail, which has injected $150B this year. Plus, margin activity is at all-time highs. Plus, the S&P 500 is valued at historical highs. When you combine with macro weakness, you have the potential for a quick sell-off. We are heading into weak seasonality for the stock market, which is September / October. We might have to wait for that period. But I think it might begin in July or August.
So, what do I expect for gold and silver? I still expect to see around $3100 gold as the next cycle bottom in around 1-3 months. Silver will be impacted by this outcome, since silver always follows gold. This implies that this breakout in silver is a bull trap. I hope I am wrong. The good news is that silver is trying to breakout and soon will, in fact it may already have.
