Friday Recap (7/10/2026)

Current (Last Week) -- (% from ATH | ATH)

AU: $4,119 ($4,175) -- 27% from ATH ($5,608)
AG: $59 ($62) -- 51% from ATH ($121)
HUI: 635 (667) -- 36% from ATH (986)
DXY: 100 (100)
S&P 500: 7,504 (7,483) -- -1.5% At ATH (7620)
10-Year: 4.5% (4.4%)

The S&P was up for the week, closing at 7,504 near an ATH. Gold did not follow and was down for the week, closing at $4,119 and down 27% from its ATH (and below its 200 DMA). Gold and silver can't seem to rebound. The war in Iran resumed this week, with a significant number of missiles flying from both sides. Gold didn't like that because it implied higher oil prices, higher inflation, and higher interest rates. The S&P didn't care and has remained immune. The HUI is down 36% from its January ATH to 635. Ouch. Gold/silver/miners are now approaching a 6-month correction.

The good news is that the gold bull market is only in a correction and will resume at some point. When? My guess is by November, but I'm only guessing. While we wait for the gold bull market to resume, we also have to wait for the S&P to correct. When it does, gold/silver/miners will also correct, creating a buying opportunity to buy the dip. A starting point for an S&P correction will be sub 7000, which is its 200 DMA. Once below 7000, then we can watch the 100 WMA for gold, which is currently at $3,600. Anywhere near the 100 WMA will be a good entry.

Two events are coming, which we can plan for in advance. The first, is the fear trade, which will ignite when the S&P 500 rolls over. The second, is the second leg of this gold/silver/miner bull market (reaching ATHs). I think we can expect both to begin in Q4. If you are paying attention, then you recognize that the time to buy is before the second leg begins. You can buy now, and then again at lower levels, when the fear trade begins.

I've been doing this for twenty years, and I've never seen the asymmetry this powerful. The downside risk for gold/silver/miners from current levels is minimal versus the huge upside potential. Sure, the HUI could drop another 20% from here (around 100 points), but that crash will be short-lived. The more likely outcome is something closer to 10% (around 50 points). Conversely, the upside potential is massive, and what is also significant is that we are trending toward that upside potential. My only comparable is 2009, and it was nowhere close to this potent.

The difference between 2008/2009 and today is like night and day. Back then, we didn't have inflation, we didn't have $2 trillion budget deficits, the middle class could pay their bills, interest rates were low, US global hegemony was intact, the US political system worked, the MSM (mainstream media) still did their job, and central banks were not buying gold. I think that list is enough to make my point. The risk level to the economy is much higher today than in 2008, which brings gold into the picture as a go-to crisis asset. Gold has been trending the past few years because of that list. Those factors will push gold higher. If you don't see that, then you aren't paying attention.