I doubt that this is a correct reading of reality. The US economy continues to be strong, just look at the latest PMI data. There may be zero rate cuts in 2024. AI and tech are triggering a new boost while energy costs remain low in the US. So a soft or even no landing is definitely in the cards. And the Brics have insufficient counterweight to the US. It is not a solid block, just look at the desperation of Russia having to turn to N-Korea instead of being backed by India, S-Africa or Brazil.
If it wasn't for the AI surge, we would already be in a recession. Also, fiscal dominance has arrived. The US Govt can't slow spending without slowing the economy. Plus, without the large US Govt budge deficit (with govt spending counted as GDP), we would be in a recession.
There are no strong sectors right now. I would not count technology as a strong sector, because that is really only about 5 companies. The US economy has been severely weakened and, like I said, the Fed can't prevent a recession.
Let's see how this post holds up between now and Jan 1st. Remind if I was wrong.
I expect some type of trigger that pushes the stock market down before the election. Once the stock market drops, it's game over. The US economy has become a Potemkin economy. It's been held together by an illusion of strength, when it is ready to fall apart.
I doubt that this is a correct reading of reality. The US economy continues to be strong, just look at the latest PMI data. There may be zero rate cuts in 2024. AI and tech are triggering a new boost while energy costs remain low in the US. So a soft or even no landing is definitely in the cards. And the Brics have insufficient counterweight to the US. It is not a solid block, just look at the desperation of Russia having to turn to N-Korea instead of being backed by India, S-Africa or Brazil.
If it wasn't for the AI surge, we would already be in a recession. Also, fiscal dominance has arrived. The US Govt can't slow spending without slowing the economy. Plus, without the large US Govt budge deficit (with govt spending counted as GDP), we would be in a recession.
There are no strong sectors right now. I would not count technology as a strong sector, because that is really only about 5 companies. The US economy has been severely weakened and, like I said, the Fed can't prevent a recession.
Let's see how this post holds up between now and Jan 1st. Remind if I was wrong.
I expect some type of trigger that pushes the stock market down before the election. Once the stock market drops, it's game over. The US economy has become a Potemkin economy. It's been held together by an illusion of strength, when it is ready to fall apart.