Friday Recap (6/13/2025)
AU: $3431 ($3308- Last Week Spot)
AG: $36.23 (35.90)
HUI: 431 (419)
DXY: 98.1 (99.1)
S&P: 5976 (6000)
10-Yr: 4.40% (4.50%)
Oil: $72 (64)
Gold led, and has been leading all year, up $123 for the week and 30% for the year! Silver decided to keep up, closing above $36 for the first time since 2011. The HUI couldn't go down with that much gold strength, but was only up 12 points, which was disappointing. Newmont Mining continues to lag (as do many gold and silver miners), with a share price of $57. Newmont currently has FCF margins of $1277 per oz, or a FCF runrate of $7B. This is substantially better than 2022, when their share price was at $82.
Gold is at $3400, and Wall Street still won't buy the gold miners. Why not? The answer is simple: they only buy gold miners when they have to. With the S&P only 2% from an ATH, they won't pivot away from what has been working for 15+ years. They will stick with the same strategy until they are forced to change. What does this mean for us? We can continue to buy gold/silver miners on sale and at substantially undervalued share prices.
I currently have 93 stocks marked as top picks on GSD. To be a top pick, a company has to have 5-bagger upside potential. That is the most top picks I've ever had. That list will shrink substantially over the next few months after the fear trade kicks in and Wall Street is forced to look around for stocks that are trending. It won't be long now before the recession begins. All we need is one bad NFP (non-farm payroll) report, and the stock market will roll over and die.
Did you see the China trade deal? As I have been saying, Trump is demanding one-way deals. The Chinese agreed to pay 55% tariffs and receive only 10% tariffs. No surprise. I doubt Europe, Japan, and South Korea are going to be eager to sign a one-way deal. I'm expecting at least one trade war as Trump flexes his muscle. And his new nickname of Taco-Trump is not going to put him in a mood to back down.
I have not bought any gold/silver miners in June, and do not plan to. Instead, I'm waiting for the next significant correction. Gold is up to $3400. I expect a 5% to 10% correction once the S&P rolls over. That should put the HUI at 325 to 350. I'm waiting for that entry point. I doubt I will have to wait until August, although that is possible. It's time to hoard cash and wait. We want to buy any dips. Gold is trending much higher, and any dips should be bought. I'm expecting $5000 gold in 24 to 36 months, and $125 to $150 silver. We have quite a run in front of us for the HUI. I'm expecting the HUI to rip 250% to 1500.
