Friday Recap (5/8/2026)

Current (Last Week) -- (% to ATH | ATH)

AU: $4,713 ($4,612) -- 19% to ATH ($5,608)

AG: $80 ($75) -- 50% to ATH ($121)

HUI: 802 (741) -- 23% to ATH (986)

DXY: 97 (98)

S&P 500: 7,398 (7,401) -- At ATH

10-Year: 4.3% (4.3%)

There were three stories this week. First, the S&P 500 continues to roar higher, closing once again near an ATH (7398), up 172 points for the week. Second, gold and silver came along for the ride, with both up significantly on the week. Some think the correction in gold/silver is over, and they will now rip higher. Third, the war in Iran continues to linger, with the Strait essentially closed.

The S&P is clearly a bubble and is topping. The only question is when does it top? When the year began, I thought it would be an H2 event, but it might happen in May or June if the war doesn’t end soon. The S&P is being supported by the AI trade, but that won’t be enough if the war is extended.

The outcome of the war has come down to a single issue: who controls the Strait? The current narrative, which Wall Street clearly believes, is that Iran will be pressured into giving up its current control. However, if they do that, then Trump wins, and essentially Iran surrenders. Will Iran surrender and give up control of the Strait? I doubt it.

The US currently isn’t feeling much pain, other than high gasoline/diesel prices. That will change once we get to June, and Iran has to know this. What happens in June? Supply chains begin to break in a big way. That outcome will have huge ramifications and will likely crash the stock market.

Did gold and silver break out this week? Not if the war lingers. My target for gold remains at $4100 to $4400, and $55 to $65 for silver. I want to be wrong. I want Iran to open the Strait and gold/silver to rip higher, but that seems like a hopium outcome in the near term. Don’t expect a breakout in gold/silver until the war ends.