Friday Recap (5/30/2025)

AU: $3288 ($3356- Last Week Spot)
AG: $32.96 (33.45)
HUI: 398 (397)
DXY: 99.4 (99)
S&P: 5911 (5802)
10-Yr: 4.40% (4.52%)
Oil: $60 (60)

It was a quiet week, with only four trading days. The S&P 500 was up 100 points for the week and 342 points for the month, or 6%. Everyone on Wall Street is in a good mood and drinking Scotch with a grin on their face. They have not yet realized that we have hit the iceberg and are about to sink.

Gold and silver were down a bit, but the miners (HUI) held. This strength in the miners is a bit of a bull trap. We are likely going to get one more leg down in gold (silver will follow). My guess is a 5% to 10% correction ($3100 is a good target), which will coincide with a 20% correction in the S&P 500 (1100 point drop to 4800).

Some of you will think this is too bearish, and all is well with the economy. It's not. The economy is a house of cards ready to fall. All of the signs are there if you are paying attention. Sure, it could take a few months, but we have reached the endgame. Triffin's dilemma is here, which is why gold has been so strong. Von Mises' bubble is popping, and there is nothing that can prevent that outcome. The next big move in stocks is down, and this time the deadcat bounce will be lower, with a lower high. That will be the final bounce before the fear trade ignites.

As I have been saying for months and months, silver and the HUI are both trapped until the fear trade ignites. The trap remains in place, but we are getting closer to the breakout. One more crash, followed by one final deadcat bounce, is all we need. I think the Trump tariffs will be the trigger. I doubt we will get to the end of July before a sell-off occurs.