Friday Recap (5/22/2026)

Current (Last Week) -- (% from ATH | ATH)
AU: $4,509 ($4,539) -- 20% from ATH ($5,608)
AG: $75 ($75) -- 38% from ATH ($121)
HUI: 727 (752) -- 25% from ATH (986)
DXY: 99 (99)
S&P 500: 7,473 (7,408) -- 1.5% from ATH (7517)
10-Year: 4.5% (4.6%)

Not much happened this week. The data didn't move much, although the S&P 500 did reach another ATH, and almost reached 7500. Investors on Wall Street continue to ride the wave higher, and continue to ignore the war in Iran. In fact, optimism about the economy has pushed expectations of a recession down to 16% for 2026.

Ironically, while optimism is the theme on Wall Street, there are plenty of data points that should generate stress for anyone paying close attention. Nearly half of S&P 500 stocks are trading below their 200 DMA. The University of Michigan consumer confidence number is at an all-time low, using data going back to the 1950s. The Buffett indicator is around 230%, indicating a very toppy stock market. Inflation is running higher than income growth, squeezing the consumer. I can list another 20 negative data points. The optimism on Wall Street is a bit hyperbolic when you add up all the data.

The war in Iran should be over soon. It was good news for Wall Street that Trump decided not to bomb Iran this week. We really don't gain anything by bombing, and we would likely make matters worse. Trump's only move is to come home. He can't open the Strait unless he invades Iran with a ground war and wins. That would be too messy. I think the final negotiations are over nuclear weapons. Trump wants a win. He will give them the toll booth, but he wants their nuclear program shut down in exchange.

Today, 35 ships went through the Strait. They paid to get through. The toll booth is open and is likely to remain open. The US Navy let the ships through. So much for the blockade. So, the war could be over next week, or perhaps in a few weeks. The chance of the war escalating has diminished.

Once the war ends, we can expect the S&P to rise further, and gold/silver/miners to take off. We might not see a correction on Wall Street until August or September.