Friday Recap (5/15/2026)

Current (Last Week) -- (% from ATH | ATH)

AU: $4,539 ($4,713) -- 19% from ATH ($5,608)

AG: $75 ($80) -- 38% from ATH ($121)

HUI: 752 (802) -- 24% from ATH (986)

DXY: 99 (97)

S&P 500: 7,408 (7,398) — 1.5% from ATH (7517)

10-Year: 4.6% (4.3%)

The S&P 500 finally had a down day, closing down 1% today to 7408. This was mainly caused by higher interest rates, with the 10-Year rate at 4.6%. It rose from 4.3% last week. Also, there is a chance that the war will resume in Iran next week, which added uncertainty heading into the weekend.

Gold got smacked this week, down $175. Silver got smacked even harder, down $5 for the week, and $14 from the weekly high ($87). Many thought silver had broken out, but the war was a signal to be cautious about expecting a breakout.

What’s next for gold and silver? Well, the war will determine that outcome. It’s unlikely that some type of deal will be agreed to with Iran. So, I only see two outcomes: 1) The war escalates. 2) Trump walks away and allows the Strait to open on its own. I think we will get both. Trump will escalate the war for a few weeks before walking. He will inflict missile damage (without ground troops) and then walk away. The war will likely be over within a month.

The 200 DMA for gold is around $4300, and $64 for silver. If the war doesn’t end within 2-4 weeks, we can expect to reach these levels. My target for the next cycle low for gold is $4200 to $4400, and $58 to $68 for silver. We might reach these levels in the near term if the war is extended, or later in the summer/fall with a stock market crash. I expect these levels to be reached, but I will be happy if they aren’t.

If the war ends within 4 weeks, expect everything to take off, with substantial strength in the S&P 500, gold, silver, and the miners all the way to August or September.