Friday Recap (5/1/2026)
Current (Last Week) -- (% to ATH | ATH)
AU: $4,612 ($4,708) -- 21% to ATH ($5,608)
AG: $75 ($75) -- 61% to ATH ($121)
HUI: 741 (801) -- 33% to ATH (986)
DXY: 98 (98)
S&P 500: 7,230 (7,165) -- At ATH
10-Year: 4.3% (4.3%)
The story this week was the S&P 500, which reached an ATH on Thursday, and then reached another one on Friday. This occurred with the Strait closed in Iran, and no signs that it will reopen anytime soon. The surge on Wall Street was mostly driven by earnings, and especially earnings in technology.
There are two questions that investors have to ask themselves. First, can technology stocks power this market higher? Second, will the war in Iran bring everything tumbling down? Neither question has an easy answer.
A closed Strait in Iran could create havoc for the US economy, US stock market, US bond market, and global economy. This is a dicey situation, and no one knows the outcome. Wall Street clearly thinks Trump has the stronger hand and expects the Strait to open in the near term. I think they are wrong. I only see a bad outcome for Trump.
This is clearly a situation of who blinks first. Iran currently controls the Strait. I can’t think of any reason why they would give that up. All they have to do is wait. The question is, can they endure the pain of waiting? My guess is yes. At some point, Trump will likely either sign a bad deal or leave. He keeps saying that Iran wants him to sign a bad deal. Isn’t it interesting that it isn’t the other way around? That alone shows who has the stronger position.
Gold is trapped until this war is over. I expect gold to go lower in May or June, down somewhere between $4400 and $4100. Depending on where gold bottoms will determine what silver and the miners do. So we wait. Ultimately, I am only waiting for one thing: gold to overtake the S&P 500. That should happen somewhere between 6000 and 5500 on the S&P. When? Q3 or Q4 is my guess.
I disagree.Gold sales to central banks are at or near a high.
If anyone controls anything it is Mr Trump.Setting a gauntlet of protection up for cargo ships may be possible.He can undoubtedly control militarily.
Insofar as metals markets go the paper shufflers seem to have control.Fundamentals are obvious for silver.technical traders can guess the future but what they really do well is chronicle the past.
Explain to us how newmont can keep logging in the numbers and business behavior they do and LOSE $10 of market value the next week.
that makes no sense to this observer.
Not sure you're correct on Iran. Don't forget China. They really control Iran, and they want the oil. I think Trump wins on Iran, as the regime needs money, and can't stop pumping or they're ruin the fields. But no place to put it. Money supply growing rapidly, so I do expect gold to continue its uptrend. I see this as key. S&P valuations are stretched. I've followed Warren Buffett for over 40 years. He's never wrong on the big picture. On individual picks, yes, Kraft/Heinz, the airlines(numerous times), Irish banks, and maybe holding on too long on the Washington Post. But his avoidance of the dot com bubble; his stance in '87 pre crash(then he snapped up $1 billion in Coke shares, now over $25 billion, and over $2 million per day in dividends); his post '08 debacle purchases and Op Ed in the NY Times in Sept/Oct, "I Am Buying Stocks Right Here", with the DJI under 7000, have all taught me to pay him heed. He's retired but Berkshire is sitting on over $300 billion in cash, and his recent comments that he's not buying 5-10% declines, but waiting for more carnage, is likely right. Carnage coming. Open AI has pre market cap of $800 billion. It's nonsense.
I see it all tied to money printing regarding gold. And if Iran ends favorably, that doesn't stop it.
What is your view on gold if Buffett's right? Down, then up?