Friday Recap (4/4/2025(

AU: $3036 ($3084- Last Week Spot)
AG: $29.56 (34.07)
HUI: 325 (359)
DXY: 102 (103)
S&P: 5074 (5580)
10-Yr: 3.9% (4.2%)
Oil: $62 (69)

I expected Trump to hold firm on his strategy of using tariffs and DOGE to lower the US Government budget deficit (which I think is his #1 priority). Wall St thought he was bluffing. When he released his tariffs on Wednesday, the stock market was somewhat calm, thinking he was still bluffing. Then, on Thursday and Friday, when it became obvious he wasn't bluffing, the bloodbath selling on Wall St. began.

I was surprised that gold (and the gold miners) held up on Thursday. I posted yesterday on X that gold would be tested again around 5300 to 5200. Sure enough, today gold and the gold miners got whacked, and the HUI dropped from 360 to 325. GDXJ was down 9%. Silver and the silver miners were down more, which is normal. Silver closed today below $30 (the banksters love to whack silver). My targets are now within sight. My last targets were $2800 gold +/- $100 and $28 silver +/- $2. Those targets look about right. We have another leg down to go.

As I have been saying, the only data point to watch (to know what gold and the miners will do) is the S&P 500. This week, it dropped from 5580 to 5074. Both Trump and Powell are playing a game of chicken. Powell today said that the economy is fine, but inflation is still a problem, signaling he isn't going to focus on lowering rates to support the stock market. Trump today said that he has zero plans of changing his tariff strategy. Unless one of them blinks, the S&P is going under 5000 next week. That is when the recession becomes a fait accompli, and there is no way back. Sub 5000 is when gold decouples from the stock market, and we win.

I want to get out the champagne, but we still have a few hurdles to cross. Our biggest foes are the economy and the S&P (which represents the economy). Both are wobbling and ready to fall. Our other foes are Trump and Powell, who both have cards to play and extend our wait. In other words, our perfect plan of the S&P getting below 5000 and gold ripping higher, can still get delayed. So, the champagne remains in the box for now. I'm expecting a 4-8 week pause. While we wait, we can buy miners.