Friday Recap (4/26/2024)

AU: $2337 ($2391 - Last Week Spot)
AG: $27.17 ($28.65)
HUI: 269 (262)
DXY: 106 (106)
S&P: 5099 (4967)
10-Yr: 4.6% (4.6%)
Oil: $83 ($83)

The DXY, 10-Yr bond, and Oil all spun in place. You would think it was a calm week. However, the stock market was up big at the beginning of the week, down big in the middle of the week, and then back up big at the end of the week. Investors are confused about where we are heading. There is currently a struggle to determine the direction. I think, ultimately, the stock market will roll over and head lower, which will ignite the pivot from risk-on to risk-off.

When does that rollover occur? Will it be in May or later? I don't know, but I'm confident that gold isn't going to crash in the near term. Gold has broken out and wants to go higher. That seems clear. Yes, we will get corrections along the way, but we can now be confident that dips will get bought. My target for the next cycle low is $2000 to $2200. Gold has become the new bug-the-dip asset.

A significant change for gold/silver has recently occurred in China on the Shanghai exchange (especially since March). For example, silver traded above $30 all week in Shanghai. On Friday, silver opened in New York up 18 cents at $27.53 and then closed down 15 cents at $27.14. Thus, a 39-cent swing to the downside. Manipulation? My guess is yes. Clearly, there is a battle between Shanghai and New York setting the silver price. The same is true with gold, but it is more pronounced with silver. The key takeaway is that this is a recent phenomenon, and likely will continue. Moreover, it is putting upward pressure on silver prices. Finally, it should be noted that silver ounces on the Shanghai exchange have been shrinking significantly. Inventory is drying up.

The miners got a bounce this week with Newmont's Qtrly financials, which were solid. They lowered their AISC a few dollars to $1439, plus their AISC should come down further if silver and copper prices remain elevated. Copper is at $4.50, so that helps Newmont's AISC. Their share price jumped to $43.50, up 12% yesterday. It was at $29 at the end of February. The HUI only got to 269, which isn't great, but we are knocking on the door of 275. Above 275, and the miners are finally trending. We need to get to 360 to resume the gold miner bull market, which has been on hold since August 2020. I think we get there in 2024.