Friday Recap (4/25/2025)

AU: $3304 ($3327- Last Week Spot)

AG: $33.05 (32.54)

HUI: 389 (399)

DXY: 99 (99)

S&P: 5524 (5297)

10-Yr: 4.23% (4.33%)

Oil: $63 (64)

Let's look at the numbers. The S&P led this week, up 227 points to 5524. Gold was down $23 to $3304. That was healthy for gold. We needed a breather. Gold actually traded at $3500 on Tuesday. Thus, it had a big candle. We like big candles, which will return. That means $100 up days are now the norm, and $200 up weeks are possible. The move to $4000 won't happen in a straight up line. We will need some consolidation periods, which are healthy. The good news is that this correction only pushed the HUI back to 389 from 399 last week. That is barely a hiccup.

I expected a dead cat bounce from the S&P (from the 4850 cycle low) because crashes also don't go straight down. The next leg down is coming. I found it amusing today that the banksters were able to close the week above the critical 5500 level and enter the happy zone (above 5500). Below 5500 is down 10% from the ATH, which is a technical correction. Below 5000 is down 20%, and a bear market. The danger zone (for the banksters) is from 5500 to 5000. I think that is where we will be for the next few weeks, until we break down below 5000, and into the sell zone (where retail investors exit in mass). The final battle will be fought between 4800 and 4500. Below 4500, and the recession begins, which I expect in either June or July.

The economy is in a shambles, especially since Trump unleashed his tariffs. I do not expect him to back down on tariffs and throw in the towel. Tariffs are the heart of his economic plan to reorganize the economy and Make America Great Again. Have you been paying attention? Transocean shipping has crashed. The LA port traffic has dried up. Housing is experiencing a slowdown, with inventory rising and prices dropping. Autos are in a recession, with stagnant sales. Many retail stores are not happy and getting nervous. Restaurants are losing customers. The last shoe to drop is employment. In June, the federal government plans to lay off most employees working from home. Thousands will lose their jobs. By July, unemployment will reach dangerous levels. Do you see any green shoots?

Gold has sniffed out this coming recession, and is the flashing red light. All that is left is for silver to join the party. My guess is that silver will have one more correction back to $29 or $30, and then finally break out to $35. The key to it all is a fear trade, which a falling S&P 500 will soon generate. Then once the fear trade arrives, silver will become a proxy to gold and rip to $35, $40, $45, and $50. Silver is unlikely to correct by more than 5% during this coming run. Moreover, I doubt it will take 3 months to go from $35 to $50. Once we get to $37, you won't be able to find any silver at your local coin shop.