Friday Recap (4/24/2026)

Data: Current (Last Week) -- (% To Reach ATH: ATH)

AU: $4708 ($4829) -- (19%: $5608)

AG: $75 (80) -- (60%: $121)

HUI: 801 (855) -- (22%: 986)

DXY: 98 (98)

S&P: 7165 (7126) -- (0%: 7168)

10-Yr: 4.3% (4.3%)

The S&P 500 was strong all week and closed today at an ATH. The new batch of hopium pills must be potent. We will look back on this period with a sense of awe at how many investors were fooled into thinking everything was fine. This reminds me of 1999 and the dot-com bubble. Everyone was high on hopium. Then the crash arrived. Get ready for history to rhyme.

For the past two years, every time gold corrected, it has immediately rebounded and reached a new ATH. This gold correction began in late January (at $5,600) and is lingering. Gold needs to rebound 19% to reach an ATH. It’s only been a 6-week correction, but this one feels somewhat different. Gold seems to be anticipating the next correction in the S&P. Gold isn’t ready to rebound yet. This week was a warning to be careful. The S&P was up, but gold was down $120.

Wall Street seems to think the Iran war is soon coming to an end. In fact, Wall Street is placing a large bet that they know the outcome. However, if they are wrong, this recent run from 6300 to 7200 will be for naught, and back down we will go. There are really only two outcomes for the war: 1) No resolution. 2) Iran gets its toll both, and the US goes home. Both of these are bad for Wall Street and good for gold. When does Wall Street figure this out? Probably by the middle of May.

I expect a correction in May for the S&P, gold, silver, and the miners. Look for the S&P to head back to 6300 and gold to head back to $4,300. Ouch. The miners will get whacked once again. The gold bull wants to buck. Hold on tight. Ride the train, and buy the dip. While this is the outcome I expect, it would not surprise me for gold or silver to get a bid, and avoid a deep correction. At a certain point, investors are going to run to gold and silver. Is that in May? Probably not, but one can pray.

I don’t expect gold to get a bid until the S&P drops to around 5500. So, we are a few months away from the final battle being won. I don’t expect it to be won in May or June. What is the final battle? That’s when gold’s price is higher than the S&P 500, or that outcome becomes obvious.