Friday Recap (4/10/2026)

(Last Week) -- (% To Reach ATH)

AU: $4748 ($4677) -- (18%: $5608)

AG: $76 (73) -- (59%: $121)

HUI: 845 (808) -- (17%: 986)

DXY: 98 (99)

S&P: 6816 (6582) -- (3%: 7002)

10-Yr: 4.3% (4.4%)

The S&P 500 rose this week to 6816. It is now only 3% from an ATH. That is stunning considering the weakness in the economy and the fact that the war in Iran is not resolved. I contend that the economy is already in recession, and the Iran war only made the economy worse. Wall Street has lost its mind with its optimism.

On Tuesday, Trump announced a 2-week ceasefire to the war in Iran, along with normal traffic through the Strait. The ceasefire appears to be holding, but the Strait remains closed. I do not expect a resolution to end the war in two weeks. Iran has a long list of demands to end the war, and does not seem to be pressured to give in without some of those demands being met. In other words, Iran seems to hold the cards and will decide how this war ends.

I expect the S&P to go back down as the war lingers. If the S&P goes back down, that means gold/silver/miners will follow. My floor for gold is $3,500 to $4,100. Silver will follow gold with a similar outcome. The depth of the next gold/silver correction will depend on how the war ends. Best case, gold corrects to $4,300. Worst case, would be around $3,500. Expect it somewhere in that range.

While I am bearish for gold/silver in April, I will return to being bullish in May/June. I expect to exit June with gold and silver trending higher. Hopefully, this is the last deep correction in gold/silver for 2026. However, with the midterms looming, it is quite possible that we get another deep correction in Q3 or Q4. I will become extremely bullish gold once the midterms are over and we get to Q4. At that time, I expect the S&P 500 to be under 5500 and gold to be over $5500. Gold will have won the final battle, with the S&P trending downward and gold upward.