Friday Recap (3/6/2026)

AU: $5172 ($5105 - Two Weeks Ago) -- (Jan1: $4350, YTD: +19%)

AG: $84 (84) -- (Jan1: $70, YTD: +20%)

HUI: 863 (893) -- (Jan1: 700, YTD: +23%)

DXY: 98.9 (97.7)

S&P: 6740 (6909) -- (Jan1: 6902, YTD: -2%)

10-Yr: 4.13% (4.08%)

Oil: $90 ($66)

This week’s news included the war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil is already up to $90, and will continue to rise the longer the strait is closed. Trump today said that he would only accept unconditional surrender from Iran. Wall Street was down this week, but not much. The S&P (6740) is only down 2% for the year. That’s a nothing-burger so far, but that could change quickly next week.

I expected January/February to be uneventful for the stock market, and for March/April to be more volatile. I didn’t expect a war and escalating oil prices, but those certainly make March more volatile. We are likely to see at least a 5% correction on Wall Street, and it could be much deeper. The US economy was already skating on thin ice, with a slowing labor market, loss of leadership from the MAG7, and a housing market that is essentially in a prolonged slump. Today, the NFP (non-farm payrolls) had a negative 92,000 (lost jobs) print, with unemployment rising to 4.4%, and the participation rate dropping to 62%, a new low.

The stock market is going to have a hard time getting its mojo back. I think this war with Iran is likely the black swan that just ended the 15+ year bull market on Wall Street. This coming recession has been building since 2009. The last 15 years have been a series of manipulations to keep us out of a recession. Most of that manipulation was money printing and egregious manipulation of interest rates. The free market has essentially been hijacked since January 2000, when the dot-com bubble burst. In the 1990s, Japan showed the world that manipulation works, and everyone began to copy them this century. Why let the free market reign when you can control it?

What’s coming next is going to be chaotic as the Fed loses control. The fear trade I have been calling for is now imminent. It won’t be any fun. Yes, we as gold/silver investors win, but the chaos in our lives will be an unwelcome trade-off. We will look back and be willing to trade the majority of our profits to have our lifestyles back.

I always like to give you warnings so that you are ready for the next correction. What are the current floor levels for gold, silver, and the HUI? Gold will determine what silver and the miners do. I doubt the banksters can push gold below $4500, so that would be my floor. We will likely see something below $4800. For silver, I would use a range of $55 to $72. The HUI could hold 800, but expect it to be a bit lower, down to 750. My floors are normally not reached, but they are in play.

On March 2nd, the HUI traded at 978. So, the HUI (863) is down 12% from its recent ATH. We just got done retracing a HUI correction from January, and we have already started a new one. Welcome to the volatile world of gold/silver miners. The good news is that the macro backdrop for gold is only improving. The chances of gold rising in 2026 are extremely good. I’m expecting at least $7,000 gold over the next 24 to 36 months. This war with Iran and the economic slowdown in the US only make that more likely. Ride the train to the top ($7,000 gold), and buy the dips along the way. That’s my plan.