Friday Recap (3/14/2025)
AU: $2985 ($2910- Last Week Spot)
AG: $33.70 (32.49)
HUI: 342 (326)
DXY: 103 (103)
S&P: 5638 (5770)
10-Yr: 4.3% (4.3%)
Oil: $67 (67)
The DXY, Oil, and the 10-Yr did not change this week. That was odd. Perhaps, the calm before the storm. The S&P was down 132 points for the week, and at one point, was down another 100 points near 5500 (10% from the ATH). As I have said, 5500 is a critical level. It held this week, but I don't think it will after April 2nd, when Trump unleashes his gamut of tariffs.
I expected to turn bearish for the stock market and economy in March, and I have. I think we are heading into a recession, and gold's strength reveals that fact. Gold's nemesis is a strong economy, and gold's strength this week reveals we have the opposite. Trump could have tried to keep the economy and stock market trending by using the status quo of high government spending (fiscal dominance). He has chosen to do the opposite and cut government jobs and spending, announcing that he wants to balance the budget. Good luck with that!
Trump recognizes that America has come to a crossroads and that the status quo of continuous US government debt expansion (MMT) is no longer tenable. He has decided to make radical changes to our government employment strategy (DOGE), international trade policies (tariffs), MMT (balanced budget), and our globalism focus (reshoring manufacturing). Ironically, the MSM is broken, so everyone is guessing what he is doing, and we all have to figure it out on our own. Most people (including Wall St) have not figured out that Trump is hopelessly trying to fix a problem that has been festering for 50 years.
Steph Pomboy tweeted yesterday that you are delusional if you think Trump can achieve any of his goals without a recession. I agree with her, but it is much worse than that. We can only wish that we could enter a recession, reset the economy, and then get back on our feet. Instead, this will be America's demise. We will not recover. America is headed for a tragedy whereby the American Era ends. This is not an outcome I want, but it is an inevitable outcome that can't be prevented.
I know you guys want targets, so here you go. Best guess. We will get a dead cat bounce in the S&P to around 5800 before April. Then, we will get a lower low below 5500. Then, rinse and repeat as we head lower to sub 5000, and then sub 4500 by the end of summer. I expect a correction in gold at some point, but I've raised my 2025 cycle low to $2700. For silver, I've raised it to $27. For the HUI, I've raised it to 270. My breakout for the gold/silver miners remains at $3000 gold, $35 silver, and 350 HUI. We need to remain above these targets for two weeks. I don't think that can happen until the S&P gets below 5500 and the fear trade begins.
Hi Don,
Thanks for that - so just in terms of cycle low targets of - AU $2700 AG $27 & HUI 270 - if the S&P does a dead cat bounce until April 2nd - then we could very well hit the breakout targets of AU $3000 AG $35 & HUI 350 before April 2nd (AG would be the only doubtful one)
Or do the miners not fully break out until the cycle low targets are hit first and then subsequently pass the AU $3000 AG $35 & HUI 350 targets?
It'd make sense because so many miners with incredible resources are still in the dirt with their SPs even though gold is almost at the 3k landmark.....the fuel is there but it still hasnt been lit....somethings missing - and again everything is playing out as you've said a long way back....
Ps great interview with Kinvestor the other day - you should make it a regular thing if you had the time - hes a good interviewer :)
All the best,
Tiarnan