Friday Recap (2/14/2025)

AU: $2882 ($2860- Last Week Spot)
AG: $32.13 (31.79)
HUI: 325 (327)
DXY: 106 (108)
S&P: 6114 (6026)
10-Yr: 4.4% (4.5%)
Oil: $70 (71)

As I have repeatedly said, the most important number is the S&P 500. It rose 90 points this week and came within a whisker of closing today at an ATH. This happened with ugly inflation numbers for January. The CPI was 3% and the PPI was 3.5%. Those inflation numbers scream trouble, and no rate cuts are on the way. Plus, we had more tariffs news this week, which should be bad for the economy. Plus, the retail sales numbers for January were awful (the worst in two years). Plus, the MAG-7 are lagging. Yet, the S&P was up? Why? One word: bubble. Stocks are in a classic bubble, and that bubble will pop soon.

I expected to see 6200 or 6300 before we finally reached exhaustion. I think that will happen in either March or April. So, we are getting close. That exhaustion is required for gold/silver/miners to all break out. We had a plethora of bullish news for gold and silver this week (the hyperbole was rampant on Twitter/X), yet we ended the week with gold up $22 and silver up 65 cents. The HUI (gold/silver miners) was actually down for the week. What is the HUI telling us? Get ready for a rug pull. We will probably see 350 to 365 before that happens.

You got four lessons today. First, Hecla was down double digits. Anyone buying this so-called breakout got their hand slapped. Is Hecla flawed? Nope. Did its upside potential change? Nope. If silver rips to $50, we can still count on Hecla to be one of the leaders. Consider the selloff a gift if you are underweight and need to add some allocation. I would buy it to the bottom. So, the lesson today was that you are always going to have volatility with gold/silver miners. A 10% drop in any miner is quite common.

The second lesson was that all of this silver breakout talk is likely incorrect. The gold/silver miners have only had two extended bull markets: 1970s and 2000s. Those two eras had something in common: economic turmoil. If you think silver is going to rip to $50 without economic turmoil, you are betting on something with a very low probability. To get our silver breakout, we need the S&P to stop going higher.

Lesson number three is that Gold dropped $45 today, and the S&P went up 55 points. Why is that a lesson? Well, what happens when the S&P drops 5% in a single day and 10% in a single week? My guess is that gold will drop $100 or more.

Lesson number four is manipulation. I've witnessed this dozens of times. Gold/silver/miners do well at the beginning of the week, and then Mr Slammy shows up on Friday. Is it a coincidence? Nope. The banksters clearly have an agenda: stop the mo-mo.

What's coming soon? A correction. When? My guess is March or April. Stay tuned. I expect gold to drop 15%. I think gold will get above $3,000 before the correction. So, $3000 minus 15% = $2550. I'll raise my cycle low target to $2450 to $2550. I raised it $100. I'll keep my silver target at $26 to $27, and HUI target at 250 to 265. I've raised my 2025 gold high target: $3300 to $3400. Silver remains at $45 to $65.